Climate research with China: BMBF funded projects in strategic project funding in climate science
Germany and China have intensified their cooperation in climate research. This included research in the natural sciences, economics and social sciences as well as analysing the effects of and options for adapting to climate change and innovations for climate protection.
As part of the long-standing scientific and technological cooperation between Germany and China, a deeper collaboration in climate research was agreed in 2018. The pooling of knowledge, experience and research infrastructures generated added value for both sides and enabled important contributions to climate protection and sustainability.
In the following areas in particular, specific starting points for cooperation should be investigated and joint research collaborations initiated:
- climate research and modelling in the natural sciences,
- economic and social science research on the impacts of climate change,
- Climate change adaptation research and technology (e.g. prediction and treatment of extreme weather conditions, adaptation technologies for water resources and relevant case studies),
- Climate research on the Tibet Plateau (third pole),
- Innovations for climate protection (short-term as well as medium- and long-term climate forecasting).
Following an initial joint announcement in autumn 2019, five Sino-German collaborative projects were selected and funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research over a three-year duration. The collaborative projects have covered different topics for climate protection that have provided new insights to both countries:
The DUNE project has investigated the development of dunes as an indicator of climate change in Central Asia. Due to their structure, dunes react quickly to changes in climatic parameters by changing their geomorphological shape. Among these climatic parameters, wind speed and humidity are particularly important, as they determine the activity, orientation and speed of movement of the dunes. Numerical dune modelling was used in selected regions for a better understanding of the various climatic and non-climatic factors that influence dune shape and speed of movement. The study benefited from information on dune movements and dune shapes already collected by the Chinese and German project partners during previous expeditions, as well as from remote sensing data.
The analysis of dune movements using satellite images from 1968 to 2022 focused on four regions at different altitudes, each with different influences of the East Asian summer monsoon in northeast Tibet (Gonghe Basin, source region of the Huang He, Zoige Basin) and in the Hexi Corridor. The general trend of increasing temperatures and precipitation in northeast Tibet caused a reduction in dune movement due to increased moisture in the topsoil. The high altitude of the regions above sea level with cooler and wetter summers as well as snowmelt and thawing of the permafrost played a role. The four regions analysed showed a different influence of the summer monsoon with its precipitation. This decreases from east to west, while conversely the influence of westerly winds with cold and dry winters and high wind speeds increases towards the west, thus favouring sand transport. This research has shown that the desert edge in these regions has increased in humidity in recent decades, which has reduced dune movement.
Duration: 01.06.-31.05.2024
The ACE project investigated the relationship between the Arctic and the mid-latitudes. The focus was on abrupt changes and extremes in the Eurasian climate system in response to temporal fluctuations in Arctic sea ice. Observations showed an accelerated decline of Arctic sea ice and a higher frequency of climate extremes in the mid-latitudes. Temporal and spatial characteristics of abrupt climate changes and extremes in the Holocene (12,000 years BC to present) were recorded. These characteristics were used to generate a benchmark for the future trend of abrupt changes and extremes for Europe and Asia. Climate projections for the next 100 years can provide information on the possible future climate including abrupt changes and extremes for Germany and China by using the characteristics determined in the past as a benchmark for the future trend.
Duration: 01.06.2021-31.05.2024
Extreme events such as storm surges and floods caused by heavy rain repeatedly cause high economic damage, especially in urban agglomerations such as Shanghai and Shenzen, but also in Germany. In addition, extreme events such as hurricanes, heavy rainfall and high tidal ranges often occur simultaneously, leading to more severe flooding events and greater hazards. The MitRiskFlood project addressed these hazards. The aim was to develop resilient adaptation measures to address the increasing risk of flooding in urban areas due to climate change and rapidly changing socio-economic development. In this context, the Chinese coastal metropolises of Shanghai and Shenzhen served as particularly suitable case studies for developing methods for deriving future flood risks based on the latest developments in climate, hydrology and socio-economic modelling.
Important findings have been obtained, for example, from the modelling of tropical cyclones (typhoons) and associated heavy rainfall events using regional climate models. By improving and coupling these models with hydrodynamic models, it was possible to derive the changes in typhoon intensities in the South China Sea by the end of the 21st century and the flood risks in the form of flood maps in Chinese coastal metropolises. With the help of a newly developed humidity-tracking model, the contribution of oceanic evaporation to heavy rainfall events was quantified, leading to a better understanding of the water transport processes in the region. Overall, the findings provide an important basis for modelling future extreme climate events and their impacts on coastal regions. The insights gained are currently being incorporated into the development of multi-objective assessment methods for suitable adaptation measures in Shenzhen and Shanghai. Together with German and EU stakeholders, the transferability of the developed model system to other coastal metropolises is being examined in stakeholder workshops in China and Germany.
Duration: 01.06.2021-31.05.2024
Water was also the focus of the Ice-TMP project: The lakes of the Tibetan and Mongolian plateaus and their role in the water cycle. The overall goal of the project was to build an international research network to fill knowledge gaps on ice-covered lakes. These are crucial but so far poorly studied components of the hydrological and climatic system of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the Mongolian Plateau. The project collected detailed observational data on thermal and biogeochemical conditions under the ice, validated and improved existing lake parameterisations (representation of lakes in climate models) for climate models, and developed future scenarios for seasonal ice cover fluctuations under climate change.
The data collected on temperature, oxygen and light in ice-covered lakes at previously unexplored high altitudes showed a strong accumulation of heat under the lake ice, influenced by high solar radiation and low precipitation. The results showed a strong influence of lake ice cover on the redistribution of heat flow between land and atmosphere during the ice melt. The important effects of sea ice on primary plankton production, oxygen levels and water quality were quantified. A parallel study of ice-covered lakes in High-mountain Asia and subpolar Europe allowed an in-depth comparative analysis of the mechanisms that regulate the heat balance in similar systems under different climatic conditions.
Duration: 01.06.2021-30.09.2024
The ReHaDiCC project investigated the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems. Half of the world's population lives on or near coasts and the marine ecosystem is an important food resource, which is reflected not least in the increasing number of aquaculture farms worldwide. As the consequences of climate change will be accompanied in the future by a partial loss of currently used agricultural land, the importance of marine resources will certainly increase in the future. The objectives of this project were to investigate the behavior of plankton communities and harmful algal blooms (HABs) under current changes in environmental conditions. HABs can severely affect the use of marine resources. Harmful dinoflagellates affect the marine ecosystem through so-called shellfish toxins, which are accumulated in shellfish and lead to poisoning symptoms in vertebrates after consumption of contaminated seafood. In addition, some microalgae produce fish toxins (ichthyotoxins) that attack the gills of fish and lead to increased fish mortality, causing ever greater damage to marine aquaculture.
As part of the project, samples were taken on expeditions to Svalbard, through the Northwest Passage and the Baltic Sea, and algae cultures of toxic species were detected in the various geographical regions. These were then examined ecophysiologically. It was found that the same microalgae species (e.g. Alexandrium ostenfeldii) not only produces different toxins in different regions, but also reacts differently to higher temperatures in laboratory experiments. While no higher growth rates are to be expected for the Baltic Sea strains at higher water temperatures, this seems to be the case for the Arctic species. The Chinese project partners from the Third Oceanographic Institute in Xiamen (TIO) have taken a different approach by using abundance and environmental data to create distribution models. They have come to the conclusion that in the modelled warming scenarios, almost all species are expected to spread into Chinese coastal waters. This scenario also seems to apply to some extent to the Baltic Sea, where the toxic species Alexandrium pseudogonyaulax was observed for the first time around 2010 and has since been spreading continuously from the Kattegat eastwards against the salinity gradient in the Baltic Sea. In summary, the project results indicate that an increase in seawater temperatures will lead to both increased growth of toxic algae and extended distribution of most toxic algae species.
Duration: 01.06.2021-31.12.2024
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