GlobalTip – Tipping Points, Dynamics and Interactions of Social and Ecological Systems
Human activities and climate change are pushing ecosystems to the limits of their stability - they are approaching a tipping point. "GlobalTip" examines social and ecological impact chains that drastically change people's living conditions.
Humans are changing natural ecosystems around the world through soil cultivation, (over)use of resources and urbanisation. Climatic changes are also causing stress. For example, the increasing erosion of agricultural soils due to more extreme events such as heavy rainfall and longer periods of drought jeopardises long-term food security. This is because the erosion of the particularly fertile topsoil and the associated reduction in soil productivity reduce agricultural yields. Another problem is that more and more forest soils, which protect against erosion, are being exploited as arable land and thus increasingly degraded to the point of infertility.
Complex interactions between socio-economic and ecological factors play a major role in these developments and can reinforce each other negatively. This can lead to abrupt and difficult to reverse or irreversible changes of state, so-called tipping points. These tipping points lead to a significant reduction in ecosystem services for humans, both locally and globally, such as oxygen production, carbon dioxide sequestration and soil fertility. The natural capacity for food production is also being reduced accordingly. This poses risks to our health and social well-being. The "Global Tipping Point Report 2023", which was published by more than 200 experts from over 90 countries during the COP28 World Climate Conference at the end of 2023, emphasises the need and urgency for further research into tipping points and the interactions between social and ecological systems. According to the report, for example, less is known about how crossing tipping points in ecological systems affects societal systems than about the direct consequences within ecosystems. This is due to limited experience with tipping points and delayed reactions of societal systems.
Global research, local recommendations for action
In 2017, the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) launched the international and interdisciplinary research programme "Tipping Points, Dynamics and Interactions of Social and Ecological Systems". In the first funding phase (BioTip) from 2017 to 2023, the BMBF provided around 20 million euros for the research projects. The BMBF is currently supporting the second funding phase (GlobalTip) from 2023 to 2025 with a further 13 million euros.
The aim of the first funding phase "BioTip" was to deepen research and scientific understanding of tipping points on land and in the sea and to close knowledge gaps. Some research projects have already been able to detect tipping points and identify indicators that point to a tipping point. This involved the use of various methods from different scientific disciplines, such as mathematical modelling, psychological models and experimental field studies. The intensive collaboration between the research projects and representatives from society, business and politics in the research areas has also improved the understanding of the emergence of tipping points – especially for the local people affected.
Building on the results of "BioTip", the second phase of research, "GlobalTip", focuses in particular on developing strategies for action and adaptation measures to avoid tipping points. These are intended to promote a transition towards sustainable societies and prevent negative impacts on ecosystems. Another focus of "GlobalTip" will be on researching the performance of ecosystems and analysing socio-economic trends that need to be counteracted in order to protect our livelihoods. Strategies for action required for greater sustainability are developed for policy-makers and fed into global processes - such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES).
The adaptation measures developed in the projects affect the local economy and population in particular. For this reason, "GlobalTip" continues to focus on dialogue with local people who depend on ecosystems as a direct source of livelihood. Researchers also work closely with local politicians, businesses and social actors to identify and initiate the key processes that will increase the resilience of our environment, prevent irreversible changes to ecosystems and promote resilient social systems.
GlobalTip projects at a glance
In the second phase of the research programme "Tipping Points, Dynamics and Interactions of Social and Ecological Systems", the BMBF is funding six projects with a national and international context.
The Humboldt Upwelling System (HUS) off the west coast of Peru is the most productive fishing ground in the world. Here, cold and nutrient-rich water stimulates the growth of plankton, which serves as food for commercially utilised fish species such as anchovies. Changes in this ecosystem due to the increasing warming of the oceans not only have an impact on the health of the oceans and fish populations in the region, but also on the global fish and seafood market. In addition, this region is at risk of crossing a tipping point if fish populations decline due to overfishing. In the Humboldt-Tipping project, an interdisciplinary consortium of scientists from Germany and Peru will develop several future scenarios for the Humboldt Upwelling System, which will help local policymakers to develop strategies for the future. The resulting adaptation options for local coastal communities as well as for industrial and commercial fisheries will make an important contribution to seafood trade and global and local food security. Sustainable fishing strategies will also be developed to counteract a tipping point.
Duration: 01/09/2023-31/08/2025
Lake Victoria is the second largest freshwater lake in the world and is shared by Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya. The Nile perch fishery there is an important source of food and income for the growing neighbouring population of around four million people. Unsustainable fishing methods can lead to the crossing of an ecological tipping point, which in turn would have a significant impact on the livelihoods and food availability of millions of people.
One key to improving the ecosystem of Lake Victoria in the long term lies in changing the behaviour of fishermen. The MultiTip-ER project combines mathematical modelling, psychological modelling studies and experimental field studies to better understand which actions and events promote behavioural change among fishermen. The researchers are looking for ways to intervene in order to prevent a tipping point from being crossed. To this end, the project team is analysing the effects of new measures such as the provision of better bait and subsidies for fishing nets that do not damage the ecosystem. On the other hand, the project is analysing the perception and effectiveness of laws that prescribe sustainable fishing. As the laws are currently often ignored, the aim is to create conditions that strengthen the enforceability of sustainable fishing.
Duration: 01/09/2023-31/08/2025
The NamTip project analyses tipping points of desertification in drylands in Namibia. This refers to the state in which the soil becomes irreversibly unproductive. In this environment, seeds are no longer able to germinate and the lack of water retention capacity prevents the land from being utilised.
The aim of the project is to identify the effects of a desertification tipping point on local livelihoods, such as the food security of the population, and to develop suitable measures to prevent these serious ecosystem changes. The project brings together experts from the natural and social sciences with stakeholders from agriculture, politics and education. For example, the NamTip project is conducting a long-term experiment on fenced pastureland. In order to understand the ecological mechanisms and determine the stress limit of the soil, the pastureland is to be transformed into a desert-like state over a tipping point as part of this experiment. This will be achieved through a combination of the two main triggers of desertification, namely overgrazing and drought. In addition, specific measures to restore soil productivity are being researched that could counteract a desertification tipping point.
Duration: 01/10/2023-30/09/2025
The Mongolian steppe is a unique socio-ecological system characterised by the mobility of wild and grazing animals and humans. Large herds of hoofed animals move hundreds of kilometres across the steppe, and nomadic herders change grazing areas several times a year together with their livestock. This mobility is considered a basic prerequisite for the preservation of the steppe ecosystem. Without mobility, wild animal populations decline as they can no longer avoid extreme weather conditions. In addition, large mammals in particular move large quantities of seeds and nutrients and are therefore able to stabilise an ecosystem.
However, Mongolia is undergoing rapid and far-reaching social change. Mining and oil production are steadily increasing, while the landscape is being fragmented by the expansion of infrastructure such as roads and railway lines. In addition to economic development, urbanisation is threatening the ecosystem of the Mongolian steppe. More and more nomadic families are moving into settlements and herds of cattle are becoming larger and less mobile.
The German-Mongolian research project MoreStep is investigating whether the current social changes in Mongolia could lead to the steppe ecosystem crossing a tipping point. Such a tipping point would have significant ecological consequences, including irreversible processes such as soil degradation, loss of wildlife movement patterns and loss of the unique "Mongolian Steppe" ecosystem. The project also aims to identify framework conditions that enable the mobility of wildlife, nomads and their herds for the future, so that the nomadic way of life can be preserved. In addition, the accelerating influence of climate change on reaching an ecological tipping point in the steppe is being investigated.
Duration: 01/10/2023-30/09/2025
How do soil ecosystems contribute to the conservation of the Amazon rainforest? What role do they play in mitigating harmful social and economic impacts that threaten the forest, for example through large-scale deforestation? What happens when the tipping point of soil fertility is exceeded?
The PRODIGY project is investigating the properties of the soil, such as the diversity of soil flora (bacteria and fungi), its chemical composition and the carbon cycle, as well as the plant world. The project team is also conducting field experiments using artificially induced drought to investigate the influence of periods of drought, which are becoming increasingly frequent due to climate change. In addition, the legal and political conditions for land use in the affected countries will be analysed, taking into account illegal activities in the region, such as illegal gold mining in Peru. All these findings will be incorporated into a modelling exercise to show how climate and land use affect the Amazon region. As a result, suitable measures will be identified whose implementation will counteract the crossing of tipping points.
Duration: 01/10/2023-30/09/2025
Climatic, demographic and economic conditions are changing rapidly in the Western Baltic Sea. Using statistical models, the marEEchange project team has already identified a tipping point in the western Baltic Sea by analysing fisheries data from the Western Baltic Sea over the last four decades. The cod stock in this region has collapsed to such an extent that a recovery is unlikely in the foreseeable future. The reason for this is decades of overfishing and the warming of the water as a result of climate change. This is having an immense impact on the local fishing businesses that make a living from cod fishing, among other things.
The marEEchange project is now investigating how fishing in this region can be made more socio-economically sustainable. To this end, the researchers are developing recommendations for the fishing companies with new management guidelines to reverse the current trend of overfishing. In addition, the impact of climate change on possible future ecological tipping points is being analysed.
Duration: 01/11/2023-31/10/2025
What are ecosystem services?
Ecosystem services refer to the functions of ecosystems that contribute to human well-being and survival - such as the production of oxygen and drinking water. Ecosystems also provide numerous natural resources such as fish, cereals, vegetables, fruit, fibres and wood. If ecosystems are intact, they also contribute to natural climate protection. For example, soils, moors, forests and oceans store the climate-damaging greenhouse gas CO2. Coasts and floodplains offer protection from flooding.
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